After Hormuz: What the 2026 Iran Conflict Means for Intermodal, Energy and Hazmat Fleets

Jul 1
6 min read

Updated: 14 hours ago

The immediate oil shock is easing, but the operating consequences are still moving through ports, rail ramps, fuel programs, tank capacity and insurance portfolios.

By Eli'sha E. Petite Sr., TRS, CPIA | President & CEO, ASE Insurance Agency LLC DBA TheTruckersInsurance.com

Industry Opinion | Current through August 2, 2026

After Hormuz: what the 2026 Iran conflict means for fleets.

The trucking industry has moved from the initial shock of the 2026 U.S.–Iran conflict into a more complicated phase: unstable normalization. The June 18 memorandum of understanding reopened the Strait of Hormuz and accelerated tanker traffic, but the supply chain is not simply resetting to the position it held in February. Oil inventories were heavily depleted, trade lanes were reorganized, refineries and exporters changed sourcing behavior, and risk pricing moved through multiple transportation modes.

For fleet owners, this is not merely an oil-price story. It is a capacity, cash-flow, compliance and insurance story. Intermodal drayage, rail, tank-truck operations, ISO tank movements and hazardous-material distribution all respond differently to the same geopolitical event. The operator who watches only the pump price will miss the broader change in exposure.

The Market Has Reopened, but It Has Not Fully Recovered

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s July 2026 outlook describes a market that absorbed an extraordinary disruption. EIA assessed that Middle East production shut-ins averaged 8.3 million barrels per day in June after peaking at 11.2 million barrels per day in May. It also estimated that global oil inventories fell by an average of 5.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter and would decline by another 2.2 million barrels per day in the third quarter.

The reopening changed the price direction quickly. Brent crude averaged $85 per barrel in June, down $22 from May, and EIA forecast an average of $74 in the third quarter. U.S. retail gasoline, which averaged $4.48 per gallon in May, was projected to average approximately $3.60 during the second half of 2026. Those numbers point toward relief, but they do not erase the operational consequences of several months of constrained supply.

EIA expects most crude production and trade flows to return near pre-conflict levels by year-end, with most shut-in production restored in early 2027. That timeline matters. Inventories must be rebuilt, stranded cargoes must clear, vessel schedules must normalize and regional buyers must decide whether to keep the alternative supply relationships they developed during the disruption.

Fleet-level takeaway: Falling benchmark oil prices do not guarantee immediate or uniform relief in diesel, bunker surcharges, contract fuel tables, accessorial charges or insurance costs. Each moves on a different lag.

Maritime Risk Still Matters to Domestic Trucking

Even after the June agreement, the U.S. Maritime Administration’s 2026 advisory continued to characterize the risk of attacks on commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman as high. That warning is not confined to vessel operators. War-risk premiums, voyage planning, carrier acceptance, port congestion and cargo timing ultimately influence the container or tank that reaches a U.S. drayage carrier.

The practical transmission path is straightforward: maritime security affects vessel availability and cost; vessel cost changes import and export decisions; those decisions change port calls, rail allocations, terminal dwell and truck appointment patterns. A disruption thousands of miles away becomes a chassis imbalance, a demurrage dispute or an unproductive driver day at home.

Intermodal Strength Is Real—but the Energy Signal Is Mixed

North American rail data shows that the intermodal network entered the second half of 2026 with meaningful momentum. The Association of American Railroads reported that June’s average weekly intermodal volume reached a monthly record. For the week ending July 18, U.S. intermodal volume was 297,017 containers and trailers, up 7.2 percent from the comparable 2025 week. Year-to-date intermodal volume was up 3.8 percent.

The petroleum snapshot was different. Petroleum and petroleum-product carloads totaled 10,924 for the same week, down 224 carloads from the prior-year period. That contrast is important for expert operators: strong containerized intermodal activity does not automatically mean every energy-related freight segment is expanding at the same pace.

Containerized consumer and industrial freight, rail tank cars, domestic fuel distribution and ISO tank movements serve different customers and face different constraints. The conflict supported greater demand for U.S. energy exports and alternative supply, but the precise benefit depends on refinery geography, pipeline connectivity, export-terminal capacity, tank availability and the commodity being moved.

Where the Pressure Reaches Drayage and Hazmat Fleets

Fuel Programs and Working Capital

Fuel surcharges are often calculated from published indexes that lag real-world purchasing. When prices move sharply, a carrier can be under-recovered on the way up and over-recovered on the way down. Fleets should examine the timing, base price, trigger and reset frequency in each customer agreement rather than assuming a standard surcharge protects margin.

Terminal Dwell, Tank Capacity and Accumulation

Rerouted cargo can create accumulation at ports, rail yards, transload facilities and customer storage sites. For hazardous materials, added dwell is not just an efficiency problem. It can increase theft opportunity, security-plan exposure, temperature or pressure concerns, and the concentration of values at a single location. Cargo and terminal limits should be reviewed alongside operating plans.

Commodity and Lane Drift

A fleet insured and underwritten for a defined commodity mix and radius may find itself offered unfamiliar energy freight or longer lanes when markets tighten. That opportunity can be profitable, but it can also create an undisclosed material change in exposure. Moving from packaged lubricants to bulk fuel, from nonhazardous freight to placarded loads, or from regional drayage to long-haul tank work is not a minor operational adjustment.

Equipment and Driver Specialization

Tank trailers, ISO tanks, chassis, pumps, hoses and specialized endorsements are not interchangeable with general freight equipment. Driver qualification, hazmat endorsements, route controls, emergency-response information and customer-specific loading procedures must be treated as capacity constraints. A spot rate cannot compensate for a missing qualification.

Insurance Minimums Are Only the Starting Point

Federal financial-responsibility requirements vary by commodity, packaging, vehicle weight and type of commerce. Under 49 CFR 387.9, certain bulk hazardous substances and specified classes require $5 million in public liability coverage. Oil and other covered hazardous materials not falling within the higher category generally trigger a $1 million minimum for applicable vehicles and operations. These are compliance floors—not a complete risk-financing strategy.

A sophisticated insurance review should also consider pollution liability, motor truck cargo wording, trailer interchange, hired and non-owned auto, terminal or warehouse accumulation, equipment values, deductible structure, driver criteria, radius, state filings and any customer-required excess limits. War, terrorism, delay, contamination and gradual-pollution provisions can differ sharply among forms. The answer is in the policy, not on the certificate.

PHMSA registration may apply to the offer or transportation of specified hazardous materials. Some highway carriers also need an FMCSA Hazardous Materials Safety Permit. Companies subject to the security-plan rules must address personnel security, unauthorized access and en route security, and must provide the required security training. A geopolitical event is a good reason to test that plan—not to place it on a shelf.

A Six-Point Operating Agenda for Fleet Owners

1. Reprice volatility, not just fuel.

Stress-test cash flow for a sudden diesel increase, falling spot rates, longer payment cycles and delayed surcharge recovery. The dangerous scenario is often a margin squeeze rather than a simple price increase.

2. Reconcile the commodity schedule.

Compare what the fleet is actually hauling with the commodities, percentages and exclusions in the insurance application and policy. Escalate new bulk, placarded, high-hazard or pollution-sensitive work before dispatch.

3. Revalidate permits and training.

Confirm PHMSA registration, any required safety permit, CDL endorsements, recurrent hazmat training, security-plan responsibilities and state-specific registrations.

4. Map alternate nodes.

Identify substitute ports, rail ramps, tank-wash facilities, transload sites, repair vendors and secure parking before the primary node becomes constrained.

5. Review concentration and dwell.

Measure how much cargo and equipment can accumulate at each terminal or customer site, then compare that value with cargo, property and terminal limits.

6. Make geopolitical alerts a dispatch input.

Assign responsibility for monitoring EIA, MARAD, PHMSA, carrier and port notices. Convert the information into lane, pricing, security and customer-communication decisions.

The Bottom Line

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a major improvement, but recovery is not the same as a return to the old normal. The strongest fleets will treat the 2026 conflict as a case study in connected risk: maritime security can alter domestic intermodal flow, energy freight can change a carrier’s insurance profile, and a profitable load can become an uninsured or noncompliant exposure if the operating model changes faster than the paperwork.

Protection beyond the policy. The Truckers Insurance helps intermodal, oil-and-gas and hazmat fleets align coverage, compliance and operating strategy before new freight changes the risk.